SpaceX IPO: AI Losses, Mars Dreams and Musk's Control
SpaceX is asking investors to back Elon Musk's vision of orbital AI data centres and life on Mars. It's a bold gamble. It comes with limited voting rights, restricted legal options and a business that is currently losing billions of dollars a year.
A Trillion Dollar Vision Built on Red Ink
The sky-high valuation for SpaceX, sitting at nearly NZ$3 trillion, rests on the belief that Musk can achieve his ambitious goals. However, the current financial reality tells a different story. Revenue hit NZ$32 billion in 2025, up 33 percent from the year before. Yet costs grew even faster, producing a net loss of NZ$8.3 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, it lost another NZ$7.3 billion.
Despite these losses, SpaceX's IPO filing claims it could pull in over NZ$48.5 trillion in revenue. The real money, according to the company, lies in internet connectivity through Starlink and artificial intelligence powered by space-based data centres. It is a vision that appeals to those looking beyond our planet's ecological limits, yet it remains highly speculative. xAI, the AI unit of SpaceX, has struggled to keep pace with rivals. Its standalone AI revenue sits around NZ$850 million, a mere fraction of what OpenAI and Anthropic earn.
Democracy in the Boardroom? Not Quite
Musk will maintain an iron grip on the rocket and AI giant even after it brings in a legion of new investors. Ordinary investors buying SpaceX stock will receive Class A shares, granting them one vote each on company decisions. Musk holds Class B shares, which carry 10 votes apiece. His votes will simply swamp everyone else's, giving him about 82 percent of the total voting power.
This dual-class structure is a familiar playbook. Tech giants like Google, Meta and Snap have used the same mechanism to keep founders in charge after going public. For advocates of corporate democracy and inclusive governance, this concentration of power raises serious questions about accountability and the rights of minority shareholders.
A Legal Fortress Against Accountability
Frustrated by years of shareholder lawsuits against publicly traded Tesla, Musk has ensured SpaceX is built inside a legal fortress. SpaceX requires shareholder lawsuits to be filed in a specialised Texas business court. If a judge refuses, disputes go to private arbitration with no jury and no class actions. This strips investors of the main legal tool used to challenge large corporations. The filing acknowledges a court could reject these provisions if challenged, but until one does, that's the rule.
Opening the Door to Everyday Investors
Tapping into his legion of fans, SpaceX will set aside 30 percent of the IPO shares for everyday investors, not just big Wall Street firms. In a normal IPO, institutions usually get most of the shares. This offers a bigger-than-usual chance for regular people to buy in, spreading ownership beyond hedge funds and mutual funds. Some institutions may balk at the company's financials, but retail investors might not. It can also make the stock more volatile at first. If a lot of excited people rush to buy, the price can jump quickly.
More than 60 percent of US stocks are owned by passive funds that copy a market index like the Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq changed its rules in May to allow SpaceX to join the index within 15 trading days, down from the previous three months. Index funds, whose investors include US retirement plans, will have to find room for the new entrant. This creates a big wave of buying for SpaceX and selling of other stocks.
Furthermore, only 4 percent of the NZ$3 trillion company will be made available for purchase. It is an exceptionally thin offering. All those funds and Musk fans will be chasing a very small pool of available stock, which could push the price up sharply.