Germany's political landscape has shifted dramatically. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a landmark victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, marking the first time a far-right party has come this close to governing at state level since World War II.
Exit polls from broadcaster ARD show the AfD securing 44.4 percent of the vote, a stunning result that leaves Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative CDU party far behind on 18.3 percent. The centre-left Social Democrats and environmental Greens both cleared the threshold to enter parliament, but the story of the night belongs to the AfD.
Turnout exceeded 80 percent, according to broadcaster ZDF, reflecting the intensity of public engagement with this election. The result has sent shockwaves through Berlin and raised urgent questions about the future of German democracy.
What does the AfD's victory mean for Germany?
Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old AfD lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, framed the result as a turning point. We have made history in this country, he told supporters, casting the state victory as a first step toward national power in federal elections due in 2029.
The party's platform is unambiguous: heavily restrict immigration, restore ties with Russia, quit the euro, and promote unashamed German patriotism. Its proposals include segregated classes for refugee children, banning rainbow flags in schools, mandatory daily hoisting of the German flag, citizen patrols, more Russian language teaching, and a halt on new wind farm construction.
For Chancellor Merz, the result is a serious blow. His personal approval ratings have sunk to historic lows as voters express disappointment with his economic reform plans and his communication style. Polling from ARD shows voters who abandoned the conservatives felt the party had not delivered on its promises, while 87 percent of the state's voters overall said they were unhappy with the federal government.
Why is the AfD gaining ground across Germany?
Saxony-Anhalt, formerly part of Communist-run East Germany, has a population of just over 2 million, making it one of the smaller German states. But the result here is part of a broader national trend. The AfD is now Germany's most popular party nationally, polling at 28 percent according to a recent INSA poll, comfortably ahead of the conservatives on 20 percent.
The party's appeal is strongest in the east, but it also won around 20 percent in western states like Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate earlier this year. This growing national reach suggests the AfD's appeal extends beyond the specific grievances of post-reunification eastern Germany.
The party has tapped into disillusionment with established parties, which it characterises as tired and out of touch. Its campaign offered a nostalgic vision of cleaner, safer streets and pride in being German, alongside hardline policies on immigration and cultural institutions.
Can the AfD form a government?
It remains unclear whether the AfD secured enough votes for an absolute majority in the state parliament. All mainstream parties have refused to work with the AfD, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by the local office of Germany's domestic intelligence service.
The AfD may find a partner in the far-left BSW party, if it clears the threshold to enter parliament. This unlikely alliance would reflect the fracturing of Germany's political centre and the rise of anti-establishment politics across the spectrum.
Alice Weidel, the AfD's co-leader, hailed the result as historic and said it gave the party a clear mandate to govern. However, a protracted period of coalition building could be needed before a clear majority is formed.
What does this mean for Europe and the world?
Hard right parties have gained ground elsewhere in Europe, but Germany's Nazi past has long created a reluctance among mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD. The party has dismissed accusations of extremism as scaremongering and an insult to its millions of supporters.
Thorsten Frei, faction chief of the conservatives in parliament, dismissed suggestions that Merz's position was under threat. But Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil acknowledged that voters were sending a clear signal to Berlin.
The question now is whether Germany's democratic institutions can respond to the deep dissatisfaction driving AfD support, or whether the country is entering a new era of political fragmentation. For observers in New Zealand and around the world, this is a moment to watch closely.
The rise of the AfD raises profound questions about how democracies respond to populist challenges, how mainstream parties rebuild trust, and how societies navigate the tensions between openness and identity. These are not just German questions. They are questions for all of us.
Frequently asked questions about the German election
Is the AfD classified as extremist in Germany?
Yes. The local office of Germany's domestic intelligence service has classified the AfD as right-wing extremist. The party disputes this classification and dismisses it as scaremongering.
What is the AfD's position on immigration?
The AfD wants to heavily restrict immigration. Its programme includes plans for segregated classes for refugee children and curbs on immigration more broadly.
How popular is the AfD nationally?
The AfD is currently Germany's most popular party, polling at 28 percent nationally according to a recent INSA poll. The conservatives trail on 20 percent.
When are the next German federal elections?
Federal elections are due in 2029. The AfD has framed its state-level victories as a stepping stone toward national power.